Sunday, December 21, 2008
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
History is old news, so why bother.
History isn’t just a grouping of words that tells us about past events; it is also a guide book to solving future problems. I am not saying that every contingency is covered by History, certainly not the ‘what do we do if the Large Hadron Collider generates micro Black Holes that gobble up chunks of Europe.’ Although, it might give us ideas from other world changing events like Krakatoa or Pompeii that we could use.
The Point is that History, is like a bag of tricks for a magician, or point 0 on a reference line, it gives you a place to start and ideas from similar situations, or even better it might tell you what not to do, thereby reducing the time to find the correct solution.
Perhaps it is time for the President to not only have a Scientific Advisor, but also a History Advisor. The important thing to remember about history though, is there is always more than one side, so whoever the person was, would have to not only know history, but love it enough to seek the whole picture, not just that written by the winners.
The Point is that History, is like a bag of tricks for a magician, or point 0 on a reference line, it gives you a place to start and ideas from similar situations, or even better it might tell you what not to do, thereby reducing the time to find the correct solution.
Perhaps it is time for the President to not only have a Scientific Advisor, but also a History Advisor. The important thing to remember about history though, is there is always more than one side, so whoever the person was, would have to not only know history, but love it enough to seek the whole picture, not just that written by the winners.
Saturday, December 6, 2008
You've sunk my Pirate Ship or Leave no Survivors
The Somali Pirates are turning into quite the Bugaboo, oh what, oh what are we to do? Come on, it isn’t Rocket Science. It isn’t a difficult question to answer and once again History provides an Answer. I am beginning to wonder what use it is to record History if nobody is going to pay attention to it.
The answer isn’t even that far in our past. It is called a Q Ship. A Q Ship is a trap; it is the poisoned cheese that kills the rat. In this case it is a nice, juicy boat that has hidden weapons. Take a Yacht, a small Tanker, a Cargo ship or anything else these people have attacked and you mount weapons on it that are disguised as deck hardware or that are on elevators and can be raised to the deck level or higher. I have a few ideas about the set up.
My perfect Q Ship would be a Yacht, with a 30mm GAU-8 Avenger in the Bow and Stern, on Elevator Turrets, capable of -10 degrees deflection to +30 degrees and able to rotate up to 120 degrees off center line. I would add in a couple Mk 19 40mm Grenade Launchers or Metal Storms Fire Storm in a 12 Barrel Configuration. Actually the Fire Storms would be perfect for a first strike type set up, in which they reside in an open well amid ships and can fire from the well. They don’t make much noise when they fire and there isn’t much smoke. This would allow you to lock on with radar, feed the Fire Storms the coordinates and select a fire pattern and the number of rounds. Press the initiate button and a second or few later you have any where from1 round to possible a couple hundred in an arcing trajectory about to blanket an area.
If they didn’t give me a GAU-8, I would be just as happy with a Quad Mounted set of M242 Bushmasters. They would give you a bit more range, but a lower rate of fire.
Last but not least, because you are bait, you need a steady crew that can handle small Arms. Since we are dealing with materials destruction, I would mix in some Barrett M98 .50 cal Rifles, some SCAR-H 7.62mm and for the up close and well not quite so close the AA12 Combat Shotgun with mixed Shot and for giggles a supply of FRAG 12 rounds.
The way a Q Ship works, is it picks a series of routes and it passes back and forth through the area. Eventually, it gets spotted and attacked. In this case the Pirates come into board, the Q Ship goes on alert, but doesn’t reveal until the pirates are well inside the kill zone. All weapons unmask and fire sequence begins. It does not stop until the boats are sunk and all the pirates are captured or eliminated.
For a boat that gets away, you have two choices either some kind of chase craft that is easily launched such as a couple of Wave Runners in 2 man configurations with XM307s on a swivel mount or a Combat UAV like the MQ-8B Fire Scout in an Hellfire configuration or the A160 in a combat configuration.
The important thing is never to leave a free survivor. Eventually they will run out of Pirates or they will learn to leave boats alone.
The answer isn’t even that far in our past. It is called a Q Ship. A Q Ship is a trap; it is the poisoned cheese that kills the rat. In this case it is a nice, juicy boat that has hidden weapons. Take a Yacht, a small Tanker, a Cargo ship or anything else these people have attacked and you mount weapons on it that are disguised as deck hardware or that are on elevators and can be raised to the deck level or higher. I have a few ideas about the set up.
My perfect Q Ship would be a Yacht, with a 30mm GAU-8 Avenger in the Bow and Stern, on Elevator Turrets, capable of -10 degrees deflection to +30 degrees and able to rotate up to 120 degrees off center line. I would add in a couple Mk 19 40mm Grenade Launchers or Metal Storms Fire Storm in a 12 Barrel Configuration. Actually the Fire Storms would be perfect for a first strike type set up, in which they reside in an open well amid ships and can fire from the well. They don’t make much noise when they fire and there isn’t much smoke. This would allow you to lock on with radar, feed the Fire Storms the coordinates and select a fire pattern and the number of rounds. Press the initiate button and a second or few later you have any where from1 round to possible a couple hundred in an arcing trajectory about to blanket an area.
If they didn’t give me a GAU-8, I would be just as happy with a Quad Mounted set of M242 Bushmasters. They would give you a bit more range, but a lower rate of fire.
Last but not least, because you are bait, you need a steady crew that can handle small Arms. Since we are dealing with materials destruction, I would mix in some Barrett M98 .50 cal Rifles, some SCAR-H 7.62mm and for the up close and well not quite so close the AA12 Combat Shotgun with mixed Shot and for giggles a supply of FRAG 12 rounds.
The way a Q Ship works, is it picks a series of routes and it passes back and forth through the area. Eventually, it gets spotted and attacked. In this case the Pirates come into board, the Q Ship goes on alert, but doesn’t reveal until the pirates are well inside the kill zone. All weapons unmask and fire sequence begins. It does not stop until the boats are sunk and all the pirates are captured or eliminated.
For a boat that gets away, you have two choices either some kind of chase craft that is easily launched such as a couple of Wave Runners in 2 man configurations with XM307s on a swivel mount or a Combat UAV like the MQ-8B Fire Scout in an Hellfire configuration or the A160 in a combat configuration.
The important thing is never to leave a free survivor. Eventually they will run out of Pirates or they will learn to leave boats alone.
Monday, December 1, 2008
Don't just complain, come up with an answer.
There has to be a better way to provide health care then the Obama plan. It is just not a viable solution to spend 11% to 15% of our G.D.P. (Total amount of money a country makes). There has to be better solutions that don’t directly involve our Government footing the bill totally, something that uses as much of the public as possible, after all this is a social issue, so make it a social answer.
The first thing you need to do is lower the cost of health care across the board. This in turn lowers the cost of insurance, making it more affordable for companies to give Health Insurance to their employees. The quickest way to do this is to lower the Doctors costs. Usually they have a fairly high cost just in Malpractice Insurance that they pass on to the consumer of their services. That would be you and me. To reduce the price of this alone what you would need would be a panel to decide if the lawsuit is justified. If it isn’t justified, it is sent back to the Lawyer with a Bill for the panel’s time. If it is justified the case carries forward, if a Doctor is getting hit with multiple suits, then he probably shouldn’t be a Doctor.
The next thing to do is look at Prescription drugs and to deal in as many generics as you can. Induce the companies to either sell the drugs at a reduced rate or to allow another company to produce a generic. Possibly through tax breaks.
Now you need to figure out insurance for the people without. We could create something I would call a Flex Card plan. This allows the person to use a special clinic or Hospital. The flex card is used to pay for the services. At the end of the year the person with the Flex card has their Tax return invested into the Flex Plan. This would work pretty much like standard insurance does now, where the younger and healthier people would probably be covering the older and those with poor health.
The next part is the Special Hospitals and Clinics. These would be staffed with a few Senior Doctors, but for the most part they would be staffed with 3rd and 4th year Medical Students and Nurses, as well as Nurses and Doctors that have just graduated. The new Doctors and Nurses would agree to work at the Hospitals and Clinics for a Period of time based on the amount of Loans they have. This would basically allow them to pay off their Loans in half the time, while making a decent wage.
The question then is, aren’t you still losing money from these new Doctors and Nurses not repaying their loans? Well the answer to that is yes, but are we losing it in the same quantities as what is proposed by Obama? With this you would be losing around 10 Billion Dollars per year (figured as 25,000 Doctors (outside large figure) times 300,000.00 Dollars (high outside figure) + cost of training Nurses). Half of this figure would be recompensed through the work residency program. Half would be forgiven, can’t have a stick without a Carrot. Double this amount because you still have to pay these Doctors and Nurses a decent wage, not what they will make once their debt is paid off and they are in Practice for themselves, but still decent. Add in another 21 Billion in building or opening new clinics, plus maintenance for current buildings. Add in 1 Billion is Utilities. Add in 30 Billion in Pharmaceutical spending based more upon a revamped system like Canada uses. Add this up and you have 72 Billion Dollars. Now we add in 25% more because I am sure I haven’t thought of everything and you come up with 90 Billion Dollars. Add in another 25% to cover the difference between the Tax Return income from the Flex Care members and the final total comes to 112,500,000,000.00 (One Hundred, Twelve Billion, Five Hundred Million Dollars)
The Obama plan calls for 4% of our Gross Domestic Product or mathematically 13,800,000,000,000.00 * .04 = 552,000,000,000.00 or Five Hundred Fifty Two Billion Dollars. I have seen the actual costs once it is all said and done that it will fall much closer to being between 11% to 15% of our GDP or 1,518,000,000,000.00 (One Trillion, Five Hundred Eighteen Billion Dollars) to 2,070,000,000,000.00 (2 Trillion, Seventy Billion Dollars)
I am sure I have forgotten something along the way and some true numbers would have to be crunched. The numbers I arrived at were derived from research I could locate on the Internet based on the year 2007. Where I couldn’t directly locate a number I pulled a number from something I figured would be close, for instance the cost to build and maintain new clinics I took from the amount spent by the Armed Services in New Construction and Maintenance. Knowing the way Military projects work, I would be willing to bet that Civilian Contracting could come in cheaper.
In closing based strictly upon my research of something like what we will call the Flex Plan versus the Obama Plan, we come up with the Flex plan being approximately 439,000,000,000.00 Dollars cheaper than his estimate or 1,405,000,000,000.00 cheaper than the lowest true cost estimation. One thing that would need to be looked into is how you keep companies from tossing their health plans over to let the Government shoulder the full burden, but that is a topic for another time.
The first thing you need to do is lower the cost of health care across the board. This in turn lowers the cost of insurance, making it more affordable for companies to give Health Insurance to their employees. The quickest way to do this is to lower the Doctors costs. Usually they have a fairly high cost just in Malpractice Insurance that they pass on to the consumer of their services. That would be you and me. To reduce the price of this alone what you would need would be a panel to decide if the lawsuit is justified. If it isn’t justified, it is sent back to the Lawyer with a Bill for the panel’s time. If it is justified the case carries forward, if a Doctor is getting hit with multiple suits, then he probably shouldn’t be a Doctor.
The next thing to do is look at Prescription drugs and to deal in as many generics as you can. Induce the companies to either sell the drugs at a reduced rate or to allow another company to produce a generic. Possibly through tax breaks.
Now you need to figure out insurance for the people without. We could create something I would call a Flex Card plan. This allows the person to use a special clinic or Hospital. The flex card is used to pay for the services. At the end of the year the person with the Flex card has their Tax return invested into the Flex Plan. This would work pretty much like standard insurance does now, where the younger and healthier people would probably be covering the older and those with poor health.
The next part is the Special Hospitals and Clinics. These would be staffed with a few Senior Doctors, but for the most part they would be staffed with 3rd and 4th year Medical Students and Nurses, as well as Nurses and Doctors that have just graduated. The new Doctors and Nurses would agree to work at the Hospitals and Clinics for a Period of time based on the amount of Loans they have. This would basically allow them to pay off their Loans in half the time, while making a decent wage.
The question then is, aren’t you still losing money from these new Doctors and Nurses not repaying their loans? Well the answer to that is yes, but are we losing it in the same quantities as what is proposed by Obama? With this you would be losing around 10 Billion Dollars per year (figured as 25,000 Doctors (outside large figure) times 300,000.00 Dollars (high outside figure) + cost of training Nurses). Half of this figure would be recompensed through the work residency program. Half would be forgiven, can’t have a stick without a Carrot. Double this amount because you still have to pay these Doctors and Nurses a decent wage, not what they will make once their debt is paid off and they are in Practice for themselves, but still decent. Add in another 21 Billion in building or opening new clinics, plus maintenance for current buildings. Add in 1 Billion is Utilities. Add in 30 Billion in Pharmaceutical spending based more upon a revamped system like Canada uses. Add this up and you have 72 Billion Dollars. Now we add in 25% more because I am sure I haven’t thought of everything and you come up with 90 Billion Dollars. Add in another 25% to cover the difference between the Tax Return income from the Flex Care members and the final total comes to 112,500,000,000.00 (One Hundred, Twelve Billion, Five Hundred Million Dollars)
The Obama plan calls for 4% of our Gross Domestic Product or mathematically 13,800,000,000,000.00 * .04 = 552,000,000,000.00 or Five Hundred Fifty Two Billion Dollars. I have seen the actual costs once it is all said and done that it will fall much closer to being between 11% to 15% of our GDP or 1,518,000,000,000.00 (One Trillion, Five Hundred Eighteen Billion Dollars) to 2,070,000,000,000.00 (2 Trillion, Seventy Billion Dollars)
I am sure I have forgotten something along the way and some true numbers would have to be crunched. The numbers I arrived at were derived from research I could locate on the Internet based on the year 2007. Where I couldn’t directly locate a number I pulled a number from something I figured would be close, for instance the cost to build and maintain new clinics I took from the amount spent by the Armed Services in New Construction and Maintenance. Knowing the way Military projects work, I would be willing to bet that Civilian Contracting could come in cheaper.
In closing based strictly upon my research of something like what we will call the Flex Plan versus the Obama Plan, we come up with the Flex plan being approximately 439,000,000,000.00 Dollars cheaper than his estimate or 1,405,000,000,000.00 cheaper than the lowest true cost estimation. One thing that would need to be looked into is how you keep companies from tossing their health plans over to let the Government shoulder the full burden, but that is a topic for another time.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Your right to belief in God, Karma, the Wheel or Nothing
There has been in recent times a fight brewing in the U.S. that strikes at one of the founding principles of our forefathers. These men came to this country to escape among other things religious persecution, yet this today seems to be something that is rearing its head among us.
I am talking about the battle between those that follow a religion and those who declare themselves to be Atheists. As an Agnostic, I am sitting in a unique position to observe this fight, although, the conservative in me wants to come down on the side of the religious. These two groups fight over things like Swearing into Office on a Bible, Swearing an Oath under God in Court, announcing in the Pledge of Allegiance that we are “One Nation under God”. The Atheist all take umbrage at each of those, screaming about the separation of Church and State, although that isn’t mentioned in the Constitution, or in the Bill of Rights.
The only thing that those grand Articles mention is the freedom enjoyed by all to either practice or not practice as they believe, which is in the Bill of Rights and states:
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
That is Article of the Third, (First Amendment) for anybody who wants to look it up. The actual phrase “Wall of separation between Church and State” was a line mentioned in passing, made by Thomas Jefferson in a letter to the Danbury Baptists. This in turn was later interpreted (twisted) in Court since he was a founding father. I am sure he would be so proud.
Since we weren’t established as a Theocracy in which our rulers have to be priests, then I submit that we already have a separation of Church and State without recourse to the Courts having to be dragged into it.
The main fight seems to come from the Atheists that somehow believe they are being abused by references to God in just about any public place. Remember religious freedom was a founding principle. The most ridiculous of such fights was recent in which a father took umbrage at the Pledge of Allegiance and took it to court. Well sir, it is simple, nobody is making your child say, “One Nation under God”. That is your religious freedom in action. Your child and you were not lined up against the wall and shot, nor were you tortured, you were not even beaten by those around you. Amazing how religious freedom even provides for those who wish to believe in nothing, are free to believe in nothing.
The funny thing is, you could take an Atheist and place him in the middle of a group of religious people and he would be free not to participate, but if you place a person in the midst of a group of Atheists and he prays amongst them, I dare say they would take offense.
In closing I would simply say to the rabid Atheist grow up, if it bothers you, don’t listen and to those of the fanatic religions, I submit that you can’t force a person to believe and the more you push the more somebody will fight it. There was never any reason for this to have even come before a court other than pure childishness.
I am talking about the battle between those that follow a religion and those who declare themselves to be Atheists. As an Agnostic, I am sitting in a unique position to observe this fight, although, the conservative in me wants to come down on the side of the religious. These two groups fight over things like Swearing into Office on a Bible, Swearing an Oath under God in Court, announcing in the Pledge of Allegiance that we are “One Nation under God”. The Atheist all take umbrage at each of those, screaming about the separation of Church and State, although that isn’t mentioned in the Constitution, or in the Bill of Rights.
The only thing that those grand Articles mention is the freedom enjoyed by all to either practice or not practice as they believe, which is in the Bill of Rights and states:
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
That is Article of the Third, (First Amendment) for anybody who wants to look it up. The actual phrase “Wall of separation between Church and State” was a line mentioned in passing, made by Thomas Jefferson in a letter to the Danbury Baptists. This in turn was later interpreted (twisted) in Court since he was a founding father. I am sure he would be so proud.
Since we weren’t established as a Theocracy in which our rulers have to be priests, then I submit that we already have a separation of Church and State without recourse to the Courts having to be dragged into it.
The main fight seems to come from the Atheists that somehow believe they are being abused by references to God in just about any public place. Remember religious freedom was a founding principle. The most ridiculous of such fights was recent in which a father took umbrage at the Pledge of Allegiance and took it to court. Well sir, it is simple, nobody is making your child say, “One Nation under God”. That is your religious freedom in action. Your child and you were not lined up against the wall and shot, nor were you tortured, you were not even beaten by those around you. Amazing how religious freedom even provides for those who wish to believe in nothing, are free to believe in nothing.
The funny thing is, you could take an Atheist and place him in the middle of a group of religious people and he would be free not to participate, but if you place a person in the midst of a group of Atheists and he prays amongst them, I dare say they would take offense.
In closing I would simply say to the rabid Atheist grow up, if it bothers you, don’t listen and to those of the fanatic religions, I submit that you can’t force a person to believe and the more you push the more somebody will fight it. There was never any reason for this to have even come before a court other than pure childishness.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Democratic Handbasket to Hell
The Democratic Party is a left based party. This means it leans towards Socialist Liberalism. Those two words at their deepest meaning can be difficult to really understand, but we will give it a minor go to give you a point of reference.
Socialism is the belief or theory of a system in which everybody is responsible for everybody, everything is owned by everybody, it is share and share alike, no matter how little or much is put in by any person or group of people.
Liberalism is the belief in a social philosophy advocating freedom of an individual or government from tradition or rules regulating economic, political or social values and guaranteeing an individual’s freedom and rights.
Either can be difficult to fully understand on their own and together it sounds a lot like Anarchy. The reality is the two taken to their ultimate form are almost mutually exclusive. A true socialist society creates a series of rules in which it assures all of their piece of the pie, no matter what. A true liberal society would be free from those rules. The two together sound almost like one of those logic bombs a high tech hero uses to destroy the evil A.I.
What I really wanted to get into though, is the theory that the Democratic Party is walking the tight rope of destroying our country from the inside out.
By its own mandate the Democratic Party supports socialist projects, which in this case means things like Welfare and Universal Health Coverage, both of which it keeps expanding to take in ever more people. The people that it takes in believe in these projects, they have to, after all it is paying their costs for housing, food and clothing. So, the more people it covers, the larger the Democratic base becomes, but not without a price.
Who is paying for all this? It isn’t like there is a magic bag with money coming out of it, nor is there a mystical cornucopia, unless you want to count the tax payer. Yes, that most magical creature, the tax payer, is being hunted to extinction as his check goes to pay for ever more social programs. This is not to say social programs are evil, but there should be a limit, or those that support these programs should gain recompense, but that is a debate for another time, back to the heart of the matter.
Why will the Democratic base destroy us? Well the Democratic Party will continue to grow (also another Blog down the road) and as it grows it creates more social programs, which in turn converts more people, but eventually somebody will have to realize the Tax base is being eaten alive through taxation to pay for these programs. The next question is, when they realize that the Democratic base is based upon people who expect these socialist programs will they save their party by continuing to support their constituency and killing the cow or will they deny their constituency, save the cow to harvest more milk tomorrow and possibly lose some of their support?
Understand that this is theory and like all theories it should be examined and thought upon.
In closing all I can say is: Moo moo moo. Which is cow speak for, Holy taxation Batman.
Socialism is the belief or theory of a system in which everybody is responsible for everybody, everything is owned by everybody, it is share and share alike, no matter how little or much is put in by any person or group of people.
Liberalism is the belief in a social philosophy advocating freedom of an individual or government from tradition or rules regulating economic, political or social values and guaranteeing an individual’s freedom and rights.
Either can be difficult to fully understand on their own and together it sounds a lot like Anarchy. The reality is the two taken to their ultimate form are almost mutually exclusive. A true socialist society creates a series of rules in which it assures all of their piece of the pie, no matter what. A true liberal society would be free from those rules. The two together sound almost like one of those logic bombs a high tech hero uses to destroy the evil A.I.
What I really wanted to get into though, is the theory that the Democratic Party is walking the tight rope of destroying our country from the inside out.
By its own mandate the Democratic Party supports socialist projects, which in this case means things like Welfare and Universal Health Coverage, both of which it keeps expanding to take in ever more people. The people that it takes in believe in these projects, they have to, after all it is paying their costs for housing, food and clothing. So, the more people it covers, the larger the Democratic base becomes, but not without a price.
Who is paying for all this? It isn’t like there is a magic bag with money coming out of it, nor is there a mystical cornucopia, unless you want to count the tax payer. Yes, that most magical creature, the tax payer, is being hunted to extinction as his check goes to pay for ever more social programs. This is not to say social programs are evil, but there should be a limit, or those that support these programs should gain recompense, but that is a debate for another time, back to the heart of the matter.
Why will the Democratic base destroy us? Well the Democratic Party will continue to grow (also another Blog down the road) and as it grows it creates more social programs, which in turn converts more people, but eventually somebody will have to realize the Tax base is being eaten alive through taxation to pay for these programs. The next question is, when they realize that the Democratic base is based upon people who expect these socialist programs will they save their party by continuing to support their constituency and killing the cow or will they deny their constituency, save the cow to harvest more milk tomorrow and possibly lose some of their support?
Understand that this is theory and like all theories it should be examined and thought upon.
In closing all I can say is: Moo moo moo. Which is cow speak for, Holy taxation Batman.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Worries for Tomorrow or the Lemming Delimma
Who is going to pay for Groceries, Homes, Clothing and the Entertainment needed to keep the masses amused and out of trouble when the American People completely outnumber the Jobs to be found? This is a question that should be on every persons mind. How close are we to saturation? How does Immigration, both legal and illegal affect this situation?
If we look at a parallel in history, the Roman Empire, we would see a similar situation. Granted there were differences, but they were minor really and to keep this short I won’t go into them.
Population was a major Roman problem once the Empire was formed and the regular induction of client states happened. This was a boon and a bane of the Empire, it provided money in the form of Loot and Tribute from the new client state, as well as providing workers and slaves for Rome. For a while this was great and Rome grew, but eventually it becomes cheaper to buy Slaves (although you have to feed and house them) or even better to pay low wages (cheaper than keeping a slave) to an immigrant from a client state. After all they had to worry about feeding, housing and clothing themselves, who cares if they die where as a slave was an investment to be kept healthy enough to get a return on.
Population is becoming a problem for American as well, between immigration, both legal and illegal as well as natural born citizens we are seeing an increase in workers with a decrease in the number of jobs. Although this may seem odd, since if you increase the number of people it would seem likely you would also have to increase the number of services and food production (extremely simplified version), it would seem like they should balance. This is less true on a daily basis due to technology.
Technology is a force multiplier for everything. Two hundred years ago, it took a large crew of men and animals to plow, plant and harvest a couple hundred acres of grains, today a Farmer and a couple of hands with a tractors can plow, plant and harvest thousands of acres in the same amount of time. Two hundred years ago, harvesting a tree was brutal and back breaking with an Axe, Hand Saw and a Mule team; today it is five minutes with a Chainsaw and Dragline. I won’t even go into Textiles, Mining, Shipping or Transportation.
So what did the Romans do? Go read about the Games, the Frontier and the sacking of Rome if you want to know, also ask where the Roman Empire is today. The real question is what are we going to do tomorrow and the day after and the day after that, ad infinitum.
Perhaps the Lemmings have the ultimate solution... The cliff is that way, as for me, I call the roll of Traffic Director.
If we look at a parallel in history, the Roman Empire, we would see a similar situation. Granted there were differences, but they were minor really and to keep this short I won’t go into them.
Population was a major Roman problem once the Empire was formed and the regular induction of client states happened. This was a boon and a bane of the Empire, it provided money in the form of Loot and Tribute from the new client state, as well as providing workers and slaves for Rome. For a while this was great and Rome grew, but eventually it becomes cheaper to buy Slaves (although you have to feed and house them) or even better to pay low wages (cheaper than keeping a slave) to an immigrant from a client state. After all they had to worry about feeding, housing and clothing themselves, who cares if they die where as a slave was an investment to be kept healthy enough to get a return on.
Population is becoming a problem for American as well, between immigration, both legal and illegal as well as natural born citizens we are seeing an increase in workers with a decrease in the number of jobs. Although this may seem odd, since if you increase the number of people it would seem likely you would also have to increase the number of services and food production (extremely simplified version), it would seem like they should balance. This is less true on a daily basis due to technology.
Technology is a force multiplier for everything. Two hundred years ago, it took a large crew of men and animals to plow, plant and harvest a couple hundred acres of grains, today a Farmer and a couple of hands with a tractors can plow, plant and harvest thousands of acres in the same amount of time. Two hundred years ago, harvesting a tree was brutal and back breaking with an Axe, Hand Saw and a Mule team; today it is five minutes with a Chainsaw and Dragline. I won’t even go into Textiles, Mining, Shipping or Transportation.
So what did the Romans do? Go read about the Games, the Frontier and the sacking of Rome if you want to know, also ask where the Roman Empire is today. The real question is what are we going to do tomorrow and the day after and the day after that, ad infinitum.
Perhaps the Lemmings have the ultimate solution... The cliff is that way, as for me, I call the roll of Traffic Director.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Recovering our Economy the old fashion way, by working for it.
While things seem to have become more complicated, in actuality the underpinning of an economic society are still the same as they were when man set down roots and created his first village or city. We look around and say our economy is global and the ramifications of it are so much greater than anything in history. This is pure hubris. Things are no different now than they were in ancient Babylon or more recently in the Roman Empire. Actually I will take that back, there has been one change, communications is faster, this is both a bane and a boon, but not the current subject of this post. The real meat of this one is the historically proven ways of recovery from national economic deterioration.
The first way has little to recommend it unless you are severely short of certain resources or of space. This way involves the way empires come about and that is through conquering surrounding nations and forcing your country to put itself on a war footing. This thrusts all sectors of society to in some way support the war effort. The downside to this is the recovery doesn’t come until after you have conquered and looted the country you attacked, but it does have the ability to employ all the people a country has available as either a soldier or the logistic from home to support them. The world today doesn’t support this means of economic recovery as readily as it did even 150 years ago. Just ask the American Indians. As a side note, a major factor in this form of recovery is, you also have to win to recover not only what you put in, but to gain from it.
The second way is a much more civilized and has longer term beneficial results; it is the building of public works (Infrastructure). What qualifies as a public work? In this day and age, constructions such as Power Plants(Nuclear or Fusion), high speed Maglev Monorails, Water Desalinization, Reforestation of remote areas by Helicopter and Hand and as you can see things that in some way benefit the people while providing jobs.
So how does this help the Economy recover? I will attempt to keep it simple and concise. While the building of a public work initially costs the governing body of a country, it will eventually pay off through taxation of use, so in effect the government lays out the money, but then recovers it. This has the effect though of creating jobs, paying the workers in turn allows them to purchase food, clothing, shelter, transport and entertainment (the last assuming either wages are high enough or costs of such are low enough). This purchasing in turn ripples out from each of these projects and supports the people working on the project, after all somebody has to supply for these demands. Now the people who sell to those demanding in turn have to seek a source of supply for those demands, be them Farmers, Tailors(clothing factories), Contractors(with their construction crews), Automakers and finally entertainers(be it movies or prostitution(something for another blog)).
So the question is: Why is our Government trying to revive a flagging economy by sticking their collective finger in the Dyke rather than either fixing the Dyke or building a new one? In my prior blog the government was looking at bailing out the Automakers, how does this help the consumer buy the new vehicle? It doesn’t so really what they are doing is hoping something else will revitalize the economy while keeping these companies afloat.
My first recommendation is to build either Fission or Fusion Power plants in several States around the country. That alone would generate huge numbers of Jobs in just building these plants. The tons of Steel, Aluminum, Concrete, Pavement, Plumbing, Wiring, Computers, Furniture and I am sure I could go on. Then after the plant is built you still need people to run and maintain this facility. Once this plant is built the Government either sells it to existing Power Companies, New Companies or they could even run it themselves and make the money from selling the power. So the government initially lays out the money for this project, but they shouldn't lose money from it, if anything they will gain long term revinue from taxation or useage charges.
I could do several more examples of Infrastructural public works, but I am going to try to keep this short and push a quick point that during this process of building, the consumers have been gaining confidence in the economy since they are now employed and know they have paychecks coming after all Confidence, be it as a consumer or a tightrope walker is gained over time.
Just a quick addition to the end of this for reference, look into the New Deal, Hoover Dam as well as the Grand Coulee Dam.
The first way has little to recommend it unless you are severely short of certain resources or of space. This way involves the way empires come about and that is through conquering surrounding nations and forcing your country to put itself on a war footing. This thrusts all sectors of society to in some way support the war effort. The downside to this is the recovery doesn’t come until after you have conquered and looted the country you attacked, but it does have the ability to employ all the people a country has available as either a soldier or the logistic from home to support them. The world today doesn’t support this means of economic recovery as readily as it did even 150 years ago. Just ask the American Indians. As a side note, a major factor in this form of recovery is, you also have to win to recover not only what you put in, but to gain from it.
The second way is a much more civilized and has longer term beneficial results; it is the building of public works (Infrastructure). What qualifies as a public work? In this day and age, constructions such as Power Plants(Nuclear or Fusion), high speed Maglev Monorails, Water Desalinization, Reforestation of remote areas by Helicopter and Hand and as you can see things that in some way benefit the people while providing jobs.
So how does this help the Economy recover? I will attempt to keep it simple and concise. While the building of a public work initially costs the governing body of a country, it will eventually pay off through taxation of use, so in effect the government lays out the money, but then recovers it. This has the effect though of creating jobs, paying the workers in turn allows them to purchase food, clothing, shelter, transport and entertainment (the last assuming either wages are high enough or costs of such are low enough). This purchasing in turn ripples out from each of these projects and supports the people working on the project, after all somebody has to supply for these demands. Now the people who sell to those demanding in turn have to seek a source of supply for those demands, be them Farmers, Tailors(clothing factories), Contractors(with their construction crews), Automakers and finally entertainers(be it movies or prostitution(something for another blog)).
So the question is: Why is our Government trying to revive a flagging economy by sticking their collective finger in the Dyke rather than either fixing the Dyke or building a new one? In my prior blog the government was looking at bailing out the Automakers, how does this help the consumer buy the new vehicle? It doesn’t so really what they are doing is hoping something else will revitalize the economy while keeping these companies afloat.
My first recommendation is to build either Fission or Fusion Power plants in several States around the country. That alone would generate huge numbers of Jobs in just building these plants. The tons of Steel, Aluminum, Concrete, Pavement, Plumbing, Wiring, Computers, Furniture and I am sure I could go on. Then after the plant is built you still need people to run and maintain this facility. Once this plant is built the Government either sells it to existing Power Companies, New Companies or they could even run it themselves and make the money from selling the power. So the government initially lays out the money for this project, but they shouldn't lose money from it, if anything they will gain long term revinue from taxation or useage charges.
I could do several more examples of Infrastructural public works, but I am going to try to keep this short and push a quick point that during this process of building, the consumers have been gaining confidence in the economy since they are now employed and know they have paychecks coming after all Confidence, be it as a consumer or a tightrope walker is gained over time.
Just a quick addition to the end of this for reference, look into the New Deal, Hoover Dam as well as the Grand Coulee Dam.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Bailing out the big 3, short version.
If you are interested in the longer, more in depth version, go down to the next post.
The Big 3 state that their failing business is due to lack of consumer confidence. They asked congress to loan them 25 billion to support them over the next year until the economy and consumer confidence returns. History has shown that after a depression or a recession consumer confidence is regained over a length of time equal to or greater then the depression or recession.
That being the case, then if we give them the benefit of the doubt and agree that things will get better in 2010, then they will still need an additional 2 years of funding until consumer confidence returns.
Of course all of this begs the point of, can they even be viable in the market that will be emerging then.
Reviving the Economy old school style should be my next topic.
The Big 3 state that their failing business is due to lack of consumer confidence. They asked congress to loan them 25 billion to support them over the next year until the economy and consumer confidence returns. History has shown that after a depression or a recession consumer confidence is regained over a length of time equal to or greater then the depression or recession.
That being the case, then if we give them the benefit of the doubt and agree that things will get better in 2010, then they will still need an additional 2 years of funding until consumer confidence returns.
Of course all of this begs the point of, can they even be viable in the market that will be emerging then.
Reviving the Economy old school style should be my next topic.
Bailing out the Big 3, or easy ways to dispose of 25 Billion Dollars
Today we talk about saving the big 3(GM, Chrysler and Ford) and according to them, the US Economy.
I watched the hearings today and would like to make a couple of personal observations before I get into the meat of things. First Mr. Wagoner seemed to be following the age old cliché of: “If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance then baffle them with Bullshit” (forgive my French but that is the quote). Every time he was asked a question he danced around and tried to figure out the best answer he could give to make sure GM got at least enough money to cover his butt when the company goes belly up. This guy came off slimy and completely untrustworthy. Second Mr. Nardelli just came across as lost and helpless every time he went to answer a question. This could have been due to the fact that he didn’t want to lie through his teeth and get caught doing so later on, or maybe he really was just lost and helpless. Finally, Mr. Mulally, he came across as the brightest and most straightforward of the three, as well as the most honest and in the least amount of trouble.
When asked by the Congressional panel about why the Car Companies were in trouble, we heard all kinds of things, but really what came across was our cars aren’t fuel efficient (thank goodness they fought the Café laws years ago or they would be efficient), to a lack of consumer confidence.
Consumer Confidence… A small phrase with huge connotations. Break it down: Consumer – a person or organization the uses a commodity or service. - (In this case buys cars) Confidence – Belief in the powers, trustworthiness or reliability of a person or thing. So that phase, Consumer Confidence means in this case a person or organization that buys cars and has confidence in the reliability of the car and the company that makes them.
Psychologically, confidence is something that is built over time through the use or exercise of a commodity or service that is slowly proven that it won’t suddenly fail or if it does, it will be made right.
The testimony of these men state that part of the reason car sales have fallen is because the consumers lack confidence that these companies will continue to be around to support their goods. They ask for 25 billion dollars to keep them operating until the confidence in the economy comes back and the consumers regain their confidence in these companies. They expect that by 2010 they should have made enough changes and the economy shall have recovered enough that they can start paying this money back. When asked how they arrived at the amounts that they thought they needed, while throwing several financial terms around and talking about projections, what really came through especially from Mr. Wagoner was this was a W.A.G. (Wild Ass Guess). Mr. Nardelli just continued to look lost and repeated some of the terms that Mr. Wagoner used while stating his companies W.A.G. for what they would need. Mr. Mulally actually stated that while his company had enough liquidity to make it on their own assuming the economy doesn’t fall further, he was also honest enough to admit his company would use whatever was left over of the sum if it was needed. So without further ado, GM asks for roughly 12 Billion, Chrysler for 7 Billion and Ford whatever was left over assuming they actually need it.
There were further questions regarding the fact that they said their operating costs for the past couple of months had pretty much equaled the entire amount they were asking for. While this would be interesting to go into the only reason I mention it is because it affects that confidence that they think this Bailout, excuse me loan would build.
Remember confidence is built over time.
So now we come to the heart of the matter. Can these companies be saved or will they just subsist on life support until the money runs out? Should triage be performed and the needed excising or amputations be performed to save the most viable of these companies?
If we look at viability of the companies in comparison to the current market, we have to look at things like saturation, market share and innovation or generational shift (such as in the computer hardware industry). Something these three companies seem to have forgotten is that a market is a competitive place. These companies have ignored or forgotten that there are other companies competing in this market, companies like Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Volkswagen just to name some of the larger ones, not to mention the smaller ones like Kia, Hyundai, Saab, Volvo or even more niche companies like Porsche, and now Cooper etc. The big 3 seem to be stuck in the past, in which they battled for American hearts and minds, which means they are stuck in a time before the mid 70s in which Toyota and Honda started coming into play thanks to the gas crisis and then the recession in the 80s.
Those 2 companies created smaller, cheaper and more fuel efficient vehicles, because they understood the market at the time, whereas the big 3 were still competing and thinking they were in the high times. Admittedly they tried to enter into those markets with the K car concept and while the divisions did well, nobody looked at it as a sign of the times. They continued to produce smaller more fuel efficient cars from then on, but these were eventually out stripped by their Asian competitors. Instead these companies began the SUV wars and seemed to revive the idea of a large car renaissance all the while losing market share to the foreign imports, which eventually came along and competed with them for the SUV market by creating smaller, more efficient SUVs and eventually would create the crossover. The big 3 seemed realize a couple of years ago, they were losing market share and created their own version of the smaller SUV / Crossover, but they still failed to see the efficiency of such. While these weren’t really a problem then, between the loss of consumer confidence and fluctuations in the market created by the housing problem and then nails driven by rising fuel prices, the products of the big 3 have become unpalatable for many today.
So where does that leave us? Well quite recently in terms of car development the big 3 and congress came together and finally some of the Café laws were enacted. Amazing, this simply states that by 2020 cars needed to get 35 miles per gallon, of course they say that this will raise car prices by approximately 4000 to 6000 dollars. Hmm, my wife’s Matrix already gets 35 MPG and it is the XR model, $19,000 fully loaded. Anyway, I digress, to help the big 3 with something they should have started doing 30 years ago and kept doing to compete with Asian cars, Congress allocated 25 billion for retooling and design which isn’t expected to be complete until 2020. Meaning that they can’t really compete for Market share until then, unless somehow our economy does a 180 and we suddenly go from where we are headed “rags” back to the “riches” and gas prices drop down and some new technology guarantees we won’t see 4 dollar per gallon plus prices again, they just won’t really be able to compete. They NEED a GENERATIONAL SHIFT. That is when they create a whole new set of cars that not only compete but also out do the competition in some way. (The best example of this is the Video Card industry and the play between NVidia and ATI. Generations for Nvidia being 6800, 7900, 8800, 9800, 280. Each of which represents a breakthrough in technology, being high speeds, more memory, greater throughput, a new type of memory etc. each created a new generation and made prior generation second best and the grand generation (2 generations back) pretty much obsolete).
This is not going to happen. Sure Chevy has the Volt, too little, too late and won’t even hit the market until 2011. They have all looked into Hybrid, Hydrogen and Electric Vehicles, but it was easier and cheaper to compete in the market then as opposed to saying how do we capture the market tomorrow.
I won’t say the Big 3 are doomed, but I think perhaps we need to look at which is worth saving and is the most viable in the shortest amount of time, because we the people are supporting these companies if the government gives them the loan.
Currently for Consumer Confidence Ford actually has a fairly high reliability rating, 4th over all I believe. The other 2 are fairly far down the list. Ford does seem to at least have an idea where market share is and has wandered toward the area with some of its recent cars. Not to mention they seemed to have been somewhat prescient and reduced overhead by closing plants that weren’t producing enough to justify them, at the last moment they seem to have seen disaster coming and quickly battened down the liquidity hatches and seem to have a plan.
I couldn’t begin to guess where confidence is in Chrysler. They are like the punch drunk fighter in a bar brawl and they are staggering from the blows and taken a slap that has somewhat cleared their head. In this they were sold to Daimler, some of the fat was trimmed, and then they were sold Cerberus Capital Management. Whether they had a plan or not, I don’t know, but I think it was more of an idea then a plan.
GM is in trouble. They are like the fat guy that is told to lose weight, get in shape, drop his cholesterol and is told they are borderline diabetic, with an enlarged liver and has Colon cancer. They have to keep eating, but don’t really know what to eat and how to plan their meals because they have 3 different conditions they need to eat for. Well their design for the market share is the Volt and it is part of breakfast and that is as far as they have gotten. We are still missing the rest of breakfast, all of lunch and dinner and we have no exercise plan what so ever. We won’t even talk about Chemo and Radiation therapy here.
Looking at this from the triage point of view Ford is savable, Chrysler might snap out of it, but GM it might be better off making them comfortable and maybe seeing that no matter how hard you try, they have so much wrong with them, that not only will it be very difficult to save them, but that you wind up wiping out everything they have worked for, or in this case realizing that the tax payers will probably wind up having to support GM for years and even then they might fail and the money then is just gone.
Quick rehash for consumers to regain confidence in the big 3, they would first need confidence in the economy, that includes lending. The Markets would have to stop yo-yoing. The big 3 would need a solid plan on how to be viable in the current market including what they plan for the generation shift, be it Battery, Hybrid or Hydrogen and they would need time. The last is something I think they are far underestimating. It took 20 plus years after the depression ended for consumer confidence to take off. It took 10 years for it to come back after the late 70s and 80s... too bad deregulation of lending lead us to today (thanks Bill). It will be at least a couple years coming out of this mess we are in today and then a few years while confidence rebuilds.
In the next amazing issue we will see what we can do to quickly restore consumer confidence.Thanks for reading.
I watched the hearings today and would like to make a couple of personal observations before I get into the meat of things. First Mr. Wagoner seemed to be following the age old cliché of: “If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance then baffle them with Bullshit” (forgive my French but that is the quote). Every time he was asked a question he danced around and tried to figure out the best answer he could give to make sure GM got at least enough money to cover his butt when the company goes belly up. This guy came off slimy and completely untrustworthy. Second Mr. Nardelli just came across as lost and helpless every time he went to answer a question. This could have been due to the fact that he didn’t want to lie through his teeth and get caught doing so later on, or maybe he really was just lost and helpless. Finally, Mr. Mulally, he came across as the brightest and most straightforward of the three, as well as the most honest and in the least amount of trouble.
When asked by the Congressional panel about why the Car Companies were in trouble, we heard all kinds of things, but really what came across was our cars aren’t fuel efficient (thank goodness they fought the Café laws years ago or they would be efficient), to a lack of consumer confidence.
Consumer Confidence… A small phrase with huge connotations. Break it down: Consumer – a person or organization the uses a commodity or service. - (In this case buys cars) Confidence – Belief in the powers, trustworthiness or reliability of a person or thing. So that phase, Consumer Confidence means in this case a person or organization that buys cars and has confidence in the reliability of the car and the company that makes them.
Psychologically, confidence is something that is built over time through the use or exercise of a commodity or service that is slowly proven that it won’t suddenly fail or if it does, it will be made right.
The testimony of these men state that part of the reason car sales have fallen is because the consumers lack confidence that these companies will continue to be around to support their goods. They ask for 25 billion dollars to keep them operating until the confidence in the economy comes back and the consumers regain their confidence in these companies. They expect that by 2010 they should have made enough changes and the economy shall have recovered enough that they can start paying this money back. When asked how they arrived at the amounts that they thought they needed, while throwing several financial terms around and talking about projections, what really came through especially from Mr. Wagoner was this was a W.A.G. (Wild Ass Guess). Mr. Nardelli just continued to look lost and repeated some of the terms that Mr. Wagoner used while stating his companies W.A.G. for what they would need. Mr. Mulally actually stated that while his company had enough liquidity to make it on their own assuming the economy doesn’t fall further, he was also honest enough to admit his company would use whatever was left over of the sum if it was needed. So without further ado, GM asks for roughly 12 Billion, Chrysler for 7 Billion and Ford whatever was left over assuming they actually need it.
There were further questions regarding the fact that they said their operating costs for the past couple of months had pretty much equaled the entire amount they were asking for. While this would be interesting to go into the only reason I mention it is because it affects that confidence that they think this Bailout, excuse me loan would build.
Remember confidence is built over time.
So now we come to the heart of the matter. Can these companies be saved or will they just subsist on life support until the money runs out? Should triage be performed and the needed excising or amputations be performed to save the most viable of these companies?
If we look at viability of the companies in comparison to the current market, we have to look at things like saturation, market share and innovation or generational shift (such as in the computer hardware industry). Something these three companies seem to have forgotten is that a market is a competitive place. These companies have ignored or forgotten that there are other companies competing in this market, companies like Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Volkswagen just to name some of the larger ones, not to mention the smaller ones like Kia, Hyundai, Saab, Volvo or even more niche companies like Porsche, and now Cooper etc. The big 3 seem to be stuck in the past, in which they battled for American hearts and minds, which means they are stuck in a time before the mid 70s in which Toyota and Honda started coming into play thanks to the gas crisis and then the recession in the 80s.
Those 2 companies created smaller, cheaper and more fuel efficient vehicles, because they understood the market at the time, whereas the big 3 were still competing and thinking they were in the high times. Admittedly they tried to enter into those markets with the K car concept and while the divisions did well, nobody looked at it as a sign of the times. They continued to produce smaller more fuel efficient cars from then on, but these were eventually out stripped by their Asian competitors. Instead these companies began the SUV wars and seemed to revive the idea of a large car renaissance all the while losing market share to the foreign imports, which eventually came along and competed with them for the SUV market by creating smaller, more efficient SUVs and eventually would create the crossover. The big 3 seemed realize a couple of years ago, they were losing market share and created their own version of the smaller SUV / Crossover, but they still failed to see the efficiency of such. While these weren’t really a problem then, between the loss of consumer confidence and fluctuations in the market created by the housing problem and then nails driven by rising fuel prices, the products of the big 3 have become unpalatable for many today.
So where does that leave us? Well quite recently in terms of car development the big 3 and congress came together and finally some of the Café laws were enacted. Amazing, this simply states that by 2020 cars needed to get 35 miles per gallon, of course they say that this will raise car prices by approximately 4000 to 6000 dollars. Hmm, my wife’s Matrix already gets 35 MPG and it is the XR model, $19,000 fully loaded. Anyway, I digress, to help the big 3 with something they should have started doing 30 years ago and kept doing to compete with Asian cars, Congress allocated 25 billion for retooling and design which isn’t expected to be complete until 2020. Meaning that they can’t really compete for Market share until then, unless somehow our economy does a 180 and we suddenly go from where we are headed “rags” back to the “riches” and gas prices drop down and some new technology guarantees we won’t see 4 dollar per gallon plus prices again, they just won’t really be able to compete. They NEED a GENERATIONAL SHIFT. That is when they create a whole new set of cars that not only compete but also out do the competition in some way. (The best example of this is the Video Card industry and the play between NVidia and ATI. Generations for Nvidia being 6800, 7900, 8800, 9800, 280. Each of which represents a breakthrough in technology, being high speeds, more memory, greater throughput, a new type of memory etc. each created a new generation and made prior generation second best and the grand generation (2 generations back) pretty much obsolete).
This is not going to happen. Sure Chevy has the Volt, too little, too late and won’t even hit the market until 2011. They have all looked into Hybrid, Hydrogen and Electric Vehicles, but it was easier and cheaper to compete in the market then as opposed to saying how do we capture the market tomorrow.
I won’t say the Big 3 are doomed, but I think perhaps we need to look at which is worth saving and is the most viable in the shortest amount of time, because we the people are supporting these companies if the government gives them the loan.
Currently for Consumer Confidence Ford actually has a fairly high reliability rating, 4th over all I believe. The other 2 are fairly far down the list. Ford does seem to at least have an idea where market share is and has wandered toward the area with some of its recent cars. Not to mention they seemed to have been somewhat prescient and reduced overhead by closing plants that weren’t producing enough to justify them, at the last moment they seem to have seen disaster coming and quickly battened down the liquidity hatches and seem to have a plan.
I couldn’t begin to guess where confidence is in Chrysler. They are like the punch drunk fighter in a bar brawl and they are staggering from the blows and taken a slap that has somewhat cleared their head. In this they were sold to Daimler, some of the fat was trimmed, and then they were sold Cerberus Capital Management. Whether they had a plan or not, I don’t know, but I think it was more of an idea then a plan.
GM is in trouble. They are like the fat guy that is told to lose weight, get in shape, drop his cholesterol and is told they are borderline diabetic, with an enlarged liver and has Colon cancer. They have to keep eating, but don’t really know what to eat and how to plan their meals because they have 3 different conditions they need to eat for. Well their design for the market share is the Volt and it is part of breakfast and that is as far as they have gotten. We are still missing the rest of breakfast, all of lunch and dinner and we have no exercise plan what so ever. We won’t even talk about Chemo and Radiation therapy here.
Looking at this from the triage point of view Ford is savable, Chrysler might snap out of it, but GM it might be better off making them comfortable and maybe seeing that no matter how hard you try, they have so much wrong with them, that not only will it be very difficult to save them, but that you wind up wiping out everything they have worked for, or in this case realizing that the tax payers will probably wind up having to support GM for years and even then they might fail and the money then is just gone.
Quick rehash for consumers to regain confidence in the big 3, they would first need confidence in the economy, that includes lending. The Markets would have to stop yo-yoing. The big 3 would need a solid plan on how to be viable in the current market including what they plan for the generation shift, be it Battery, Hybrid or Hydrogen and they would need time. The last is something I think they are far underestimating. It took 20 plus years after the depression ended for consumer confidence to take off. It took 10 years for it to come back after the late 70s and 80s... too bad deregulation of lending lead us to today (thanks Bill). It will be at least a couple years coming out of this mess we are in today and then a few years while confidence rebuilds.
In the next amazing issue we will see what we can do to quickly restore consumer confidence.Thanks for reading.
Friday, November 7, 2008
Opening post
The creation of this blog can actually be blamed on a friend. Evidently my thoughts amuse him and I will say, his amuse me, sometimes to the point of name calling, usually something either crude or it just degenerates into whatever political extreme we are arguing for the day.
For my first thoughts on this blog, allow me to present:
http://change.gov/americaserves/
The Obama Administration will call on Americans to serve in order to meet the nation’s challenges. President-Elect Obama will expand national service programs like AmeriCorps and Peace Corps and will create a new Classroom Corps to help teachers in underserved schools, as well as a new Health Corps, Clean Energy Corps, and Veterans Corps. Obama will call on citizens of all ages to serve America, by developing a plan to require 50 hours of community service in middle school and high school and 100 hours of community service in college every year. Obama will encourage retiring Americans to serve by improving programs available for individuals over age 55, while at the same time promoting youth programs such as Youth Build and Head Start.
That paragraph, which is the article in question leads to several scary thoughts, at least in my mind. I read it and if I don't think about it, it all sounds very nice, but the more I think about it, the scarrier it becomes. Now maybe it is just the wording or it could be the thoughts behind it, but something starts coming through.
Think about it. Close your eyes and just let what you have read bubble a while. Words start popping up repeatedly Corps, Community, Community Service (mandatory), Senior Programs, Youth Programs, Toddler Programs.
So what. Well if you are any kind of a student of history, there should be a small part of you sounding a warning. We have seen this before, in the last century, in a couple European Countries and Russia. One led to Communism and the other to Socialist Fascism.
Sound alarmist? Well consider this then, if you re-read the paragraph above, you see that in order to graduate from High School and then get a Bachelor's degree you will be required to perform 500 hours of community service. We have to assume since they don't state it, that if you don't perform your services you don't graduate. So enforced service, but rather than beat you like they would in Russia at the time of Stalin, they just limit all your options.
Let’s look at all these Corps that he wants to create. Any time the government creates an organization it becomes a tool of that government. Don't believe me? Go read up on your German history from around 1929 to 1945. It is a small step to go from a uniformed organization with a nebulous idea to something like the SS. What is even more worrying is the thought of Children’s programs that are Government Sponsored. What a great way to ingrain some ideas, just ask the Hitler Youth Groups. What is wrong with Girl Scouts and Boy Scouts?
Perhaps the article is poorly worded, but whether that is the case or not, it is the ideas being presented that you need to think about.
For my first thoughts on this blog, allow me to present:
http://change.gov/americaserves/
The Obama Administration will call on Americans to serve in order to meet the nation’s challenges. President-Elect Obama will expand national service programs like AmeriCorps and Peace Corps and will create a new Classroom Corps to help teachers in underserved schools, as well as a new Health Corps, Clean Energy Corps, and Veterans Corps. Obama will call on citizens of all ages to serve America, by developing a plan to require 50 hours of community service in middle school and high school and 100 hours of community service in college every year. Obama will encourage retiring Americans to serve by improving programs available for individuals over age 55, while at the same time promoting youth programs such as Youth Build and Head Start.
That paragraph, which is the article in question leads to several scary thoughts, at least in my mind. I read it and if I don't think about it, it all sounds very nice, but the more I think about it, the scarrier it becomes. Now maybe it is just the wording or it could be the thoughts behind it, but something starts coming through.
Think about it. Close your eyes and just let what you have read bubble a while. Words start popping up repeatedly Corps, Community, Community Service (mandatory), Senior Programs, Youth Programs, Toddler Programs.
So what. Well if you are any kind of a student of history, there should be a small part of you sounding a warning. We have seen this before, in the last century, in a couple European Countries and Russia. One led to Communism and the other to Socialist Fascism.
Sound alarmist? Well consider this then, if you re-read the paragraph above, you see that in order to graduate from High School and then get a Bachelor's degree you will be required to perform 500 hours of community service. We have to assume since they don't state it, that if you don't perform your services you don't graduate. So enforced service, but rather than beat you like they would in Russia at the time of Stalin, they just limit all your options.
Let’s look at all these Corps that he wants to create. Any time the government creates an organization it becomes a tool of that government. Don't believe me? Go read up on your German history from around 1929 to 1945. It is a small step to go from a uniformed organization with a nebulous idea to something like the SS. What is even more worrying is the thought of Children’s programs that are Government Sponsored. What a great way to ingrain some ideas, just ask the Hitler Youth Groups. What is wrong with Girl Scouts and Boy Scouts?
Perhaps the article is poorly worded, but whether that is the case or not, it is the ideas being presented that you need to think about.
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